Friday 31 July 2009

India Shining !!!!!!!! really

I was in India couple of months back. Wherever I went, a few thoughts crossed my mind, which I thought of putting into words. I am no expert to say whether India is shining nor am I a part of the government who promises to convert Mumbai into Shanghai.

From a global perspective, India is growing. There is money to be made in India. FII's with deep pockets can pour money into the markets and take the sensex up, make a good 15-20% and then sell their stakes, book profits and tank the sensex. It is the same story with the mutual funds. Within 6 months, as of today, the sensex trades at 90% more than the lowest levels of 2009.

Coming back to my India trip, I had a few thoughts, which made me think if India is really shining? Is the stock market growth in India a true sign of development and economic growth?

- 60% of population in the financial capital lives in slums.
- One downpour is enough to make any city in India paralyzed.
- There are some roads in between potholes.
- Power problems still plague big cities. In winters, people use geysers and heaters which increases demand. In summer, people use air-conditioners, which increases the demand and every year for the past 60 years, the government is taken by surprise.
- Water, electricity and basic sanitation facilities are still a luxury for more than half of our population.
- Unemployment is around 10-15%. This is does not include the disguised unemployment prevalent in the government and quasi-government sectors.
- Public transport facilities are in shambles, in a few cities where it is available
- Government hospitals are meant for politicans only (they also seldom use it)
- The airline of the country is meant for government babus, their families, cousins and the army of relatives
- Our defense budget is a whopping 150,000 crores, but any tom, dick and harry, not only takes a boat ride into the country but also holds an entire city to ransom
- We have a public distribution system for the poor, where the worst quality of foodgrains are distributed
- Politicans, beureaucrats, cricketers, filmstars and the likes are VIP's, VVIP's and VVVIP's and are provided Y, Z, Z+ category security, whereas the common man is a victim of extremism
- Many children and adults are illiterate and have no basic education
- Votes cost Rs1/- only
- A bollywood actor is finding it impossible to get a house in pali hill, as he is a muslim and we call ourselves secular
- Even today, more children in the family means more hands to work
- Inflation is negative, but our living expenses are soaring
- The Ambanis and Birlas make money even in the recession, but the mundu on the street lives on a per capita income of Rs. 37000/- per annum
- Anything from a pin to a plane can be bought in 'hard cash'

These are a few things which I noticed. We could be developing, but until such things get sorted out, we will still be developing. We need radically different reforms and a completely independent set up to actually implement them. Lets face it, the current government and constitutional set up is not working. Until the government focusses on saving its 'kursi' we will be developing.

my two cents worth of thought.

Wednesday 15 July 2009

Meri Pyaari Rakhi Sawant

Dear Ms. Sawant,

I have heard so many people talk about your show ‘Rakhi ka Swayamvar’ that I made it a point to catch some of the episodes. I also found a few words that best describe it – obnoxious, ridiculous, preposterous, absurd, nonsensical, outrageous etc etc. Don’t you think that this show is a typical example to what extent a human can go, to make money, apart from being a grave insult to the institution of marriage?

For starters, you change your costumes every 10 minutes and engage in meaningless and atrocious conversations with each of the guys interested in becoming your ‘saiyyan’. I must say that the buffet of guys waiting to marry you has a lot of variety, with models, engineers, upcoming actors, businessmen and a police officer. How on earth do you think that guys who are just 21-22 years old are even eligible to be on this show, leave alone marrying you? One of the guys even left a well paid job as a sales manager to marry you. Well, someone needs to instil some sense into him that having a job itself is the biggest motivation for majority of us today and both the decisions require lot of guts, determination and oodles of patience – leaving the job and marrying you.

At the end of each show you eliminate people who you feel do not share any interests with you or you do not feel any chemistry (whatever that means to you). Well, you have used Talent contests, writing you a love letter, Ramp walking, Dancing with you, the army training style crawling on the mud and jumping artificial walls, turning an iron rod using ones throat and walking on fire.

What has someone dancing, walking on fire or dirtying oneself got to do with marriage? Unfortunately the reasons that you gave were equally obnoxious as your highness. Are you really looking for a life partner? Or are you on a maid, servant, entertainer hunting quest? What would be next? Cook a meal for you or wash your clothes or even race horses.

Get a life. Let me tell you Ms. Sawant, there are better ways to meet interesting guys – matrimonial sites or dating websites or even hook-up with friend’s friend and their friends. The only reason you need a reality show is when no one would otherwise want to meet you.

Please please for the audience’s plight, stop crying on television with sob stories of your past, even though it might add flavour to your self proclaimed celebrity status. And what would take it for you to not open your mouth on the show? You can’t speak for nuts and the ‘camminication skills’ are best left aside.

I wonder why any ‘Men’s rights activists’ or ‘nar bachao kendra’ or any NGO has kept quiet for so long. If this was a guy having a swayamvar with a bunch of girls around, the likes of Girija Vyas would have jumped for publicity. Your show is the heights of an insult to not only men but to everyone who believes in the sanctity of a marriage.

Oh!! by the way, ever heard of FCP? Yeah!!!! A Female Chauvinist ----- (something’s are best untold.)

Regards
An Ardent fan of yours

PS: The show is still on and there’s more to come from me.

The joke so far - in one of the episodes there was a dispute between her and another guy and a third guy stepped in as if he were the only savior left in the whole world to support her. For that, Ms Sawant said 'unhone stand uthaya mere liye', literally translated from english ' he took a stand for me'.

Monday 13 July 2009

What the Recession taught me

Long ago, I read somewhere, “There is a different thrill to do business with someone else’s money.” Only now I understood the meaning of it. The second half of 2008 saw a whitewash of investment banks from the global financial set-up. Looking at the carnage caused by the economic and financial crisis, one does question the existence of a business model, which does not have a product or service to back up the revenues. This is where the age old FMCG’s score over the Investment banking industry.

The golden rule for investment is “one man’s loss is another man’s gain.” So if a load of people have lost their money, someone must have made money too. Else the whole global financial market defies pure logic. Not everyone’s portfolios can be ‘red’ with no one in ‘green’. Whatever happened to the bears of the stock market? Whatever happened to the pessimistic lot, ready to go short? Logic says that in the current turmoil, these guys would have made money, and loads of it. But where are these guys? None of them being reported? Are these guys sitting within the so-called investment banks, trying to square up the losses made by their erstwhile colleagues? Or is this cash (paper is worthless these days), sitting somewhere in the Cayman Islands or Maldives?

Well, whatever the Warren Buffet’s of the world may advice, there are a few things that I have learnt:

- 100 rupees in hand is always worth 200 in paper holdings (read shares). Atleast you know that the value Rs. 100 will not diminish, unlike the paper (not counting inflation, which effects both)
- I prefer getting 7-8% regular returns than 20% in one year and negative the next year.
- If my portfolio is green, I will sell, make my money and get out. What goes up will come down. Gain control over the ‘human greed’. When the markets come down, invest your money back
- Inflation as an economic indicator is meaningless to me, as my living costs are always increasing
- If investing in the shares of a distillery can enhance my returns, I will go ahead. Consumption of alcohol is personal choice and freedom
- I am interested only in my mortgage interest rate. The central bank should do something to ensure my bank passes on the rate cuts to me, instead of me having to scout for alternate banks, to switch my home loan
- The Arab world is sitting on a pot of gold and even if their real estate investments fail, oil will see them through
- Our next to next to next generation will still be buying oil in US Dollars
- Bailout based on book transfers of debt is not the solution. For a long term solution, a fundamental shift in the actual business model is needed.
- Hedge funds do not add any value to economic fundamentals
- Sovereign Wealth Funds are cousins of hedge funds, only portrayed differently
- Developing economies have neither the value nor the volume of trade and consumption to lead a global recovery

And finally, finally, finally !!!!

There was never a recession. What the market is worth today is the real worth. 2007 and early 2008 was a period of an over-priced and inflated market. Now that’s the bitter truth we all have to swallow, whether we like it or not.

Don’t count your stock, before they are cashed……..

Monday 6 July 2009

Jai ho Pranab da jai ho

Government khud tho aam khaa gayee, bas gutli reh gayee hai aam aadi ke liye

The budget was being tabled as one for the “aam aadmi”. As it is, the expectation had deteriorated after the hike in petrol and diesel prices. The markets shedding a whopping 870 points is enough indication of how the budget has been accepted (or rejected)

There is a lot of investment being made into housing for urban poor and troubled farmers. Huge allocations have been made for National Rural Unemployment (NREGA). Rural health mission has received a fair bit of funding too. This is only an overview of what has been promised for the rural sector. There is a lot more. But there is no mention about the roadmap for fiscal reforms and consolidation, nothing on increasing FDI levels in selected sectors and no mention on reviving industries hit by recession. May be the finance minister thought that disinvestment was too trivial an issue to be included in the budget.

India has not been affected by the recession as severely as the west. The fiscal stimulus is indeed important, but all the jazz about stimulus packages are on paper and mere book transfers. Mr. Mukherjee, if you really want to drive India out of the mess, through consumer spending, use the budget to give money in the hands of the salaried class. Make banks pass on all rate cuts to all customers. Cut the tax rates, increase the investment limits from 1L, which was set by our great grandfathers, give more tax breaks on home loans. Quicken disinvestment and use that money to fund the expenditure. In fact, the salaried class has not got anything worthwhile, whereas the budget for rashtrapati bhavan is up 21%.

The budget clearly shows the motive of this government, which is to save their vote bank. It is no secret that the UPA came back to power on the back of majority of the rural votes. So what they have done is to ensure the focus is on rural areas in the budget, as elections are still fresh in the minds of the voters. Whether they will do what is being promised is a different discussion altogether.

It is no rocket science that during the recessionary times, the HNI and ultra HNI’s hardly get affected. They make their money anyways. The Mittals and Ambanis of the world are still making money. The ultra poor do not bother, as they anyway have no money to loose. It is the chunk in-between, the salaried class like you and me, who get affected the most. It is we who fuel the property business. It is we fuel banks, in the form of home loans, vehicle loans and credit cards. It is we who spend on cigarette, alcohol and petrol and pay taxes through our nose. It is we who pay sky high prices for daily food articles, prices of which keep increasing irrespective of the level inflation.

What does the budget have to offer the salaried class? 10000 increase in the tax slab, women get 10000 as tax exemption and senior citizens 15000. Net effect to the salaried class is an additional income of a mere Rs. 166 per month. Is the government trying to make a statement to the salaried class? Rs. 166 - That’s all your vote is worth. Thank you for voting us back to power.

In a democracy, to make your voice audible, either you need money or you should be the majority. We, the salaried class haven’t got both. Ab pachthaaye kya hoth, jab chidiya chug gayee kheth.

Wednesday 1 July 2009

Murg Makhni

Everyone has a family physician, may be a family lawyer or a family barber, but ever heard of a family restaurant. Thats how we treat "The Dhaba" at the Claridges hotel, in Delhi. Any ocassion, right from birthdays to anniversary to any reason to celebrate, we are in this place atleast once a year. For the past few years, this has been an annual ritual, as going to delhi itself has become a reason to celebrate.

This place has one of the best butter chicken dishes (Murg Makhni)one can feast on. The ambience is of a actual dhaba. There is an open kitchen, in the form of the front portion of truck. All cutlery is a mixture of steel and copper, the waiters are in pathani suits, you can see old copper vessels adding to the authentic ambience and the food is just amazingly amazing.

They have the usual veggie fair of vegetables, dal and the rotis, naan and the muttons and chickens and the beers, vodkas, rum etc etc. Lets keep all that aside. The highlight is the murg makhni or butter chicken, which will be as heavenly as a Picasso painting to an artist or Beethoven music to a musician. The butter chicken is made in a tomato based gravy, which in itself just sooo soo soo tasty. God knows what they do it, but it tastes the same everytime in the last 14-15 years that I have been going here. The murg makhni chef must be operating at 10 or 11 sigma to dish out the same quality, consistently for years and years. The dish has 4-5 medium sized pieces of chicken, which are cooked to perfection and the aroma of the gravy and the spices can be felt deep inside those pieces. Just like the Sri Krishna sweets Mysore pak (burfi) really melts with the ghee as you put it into your mouth, the same way the soft, tender, juicy pieces of chicken and the spices and the gravy just melt in your mouth, making the whole experience a heavenly, culinary delight.

The portions are decent and one order of murg makhni will serve 2 people very comfortably. The veggie fare is also equally delicious and the service is excellent. The only word of caution are the damages. Few drinks and a good meal for 4, will push you back by around 3500-4000. Thats why I said called this an annual ritual.

Next time you are in Delhi, just rush to this place - saddi dilli ke murge ka jawab nahi !!!